NBA Season Preview Part 2
Favorites and Contenders
Not going to do a regular intro, but I do want to note that these rankings are based on where I think the teams will finish in the playoffs, not a temperature check or regular-season finish. I hope you enjoy it!
The Favorites
- Brooklyn Nets
Starting Five: Harden, Irving, Joe Harris, KD, Nic Claxton
Bench Four: Patty Mills, Blake Griffin, Bruce Brown, Paul Milsap
Predicted Playoff Finish: NBA Champions
Predicted Regular Season Finish: 2nd in the East
Elevator Pitch: If the Nets’ three stars are healthy, they will win a championship. Hell, they might if they only have two stars healthy.
Questions: Health, of course, but how Steve Nash will work this surprisingly deep roster is also important to question. Look for him to sit the big three early, to work in newcomers Patty Mills, Paul Milsap, LaMarcus Alridge and James Johnson plus rookie sensation Cam Thomas.
2. Milwaukee Bucks
Starting Five: Holiday, Donte DiVincenzo, Middleton, Giannis, Brooke Lopez
Bench Four: Bobby Portis, Grayson Allen, Pat Connaughton, Semi Ojeleye
Predicted Playoff Finish: Eastern Conference Finals
Predicted Regular Season Finish: 1st in the East
Elevator Pitch: The defending champions who are getting their starting shooting guard back and can probably expect another Giannis mini-leap.
Questions: Can the Bucks be better than last year? They will need to be if the Nets are at full strength. The Bucks, too, are a little deeper. Tanias and Semi seem redundant, with Semi being just the better player right now. DiVincenzo and Allen being in the rotation probably mean zero/few minutes for George Hill and the end of Jeff Teague’s bucks tenure.
3. Los Angeles Lakers
Starting Five: Westbrook, Talen Horton-Tucker, Lebron, AD, Dwight Howard
Bench Four: Kendrick Nunn, Carmelo, Malik Monk, De’Andre Jordan
Predicted Playoff Finish: NBA Finals
Predicted Regular Season Finish: 3rd in the West
Elevator Pitch: If AD and LeBron are healthy, they are two of the league’s top seven to five players. Only the Nets can maybe match that. Plus, Westbrook should raise their floor in the regular season, so they are not playing from the seventh seed this year.
Questions: The Lakers have so many questions it’s hard to fit in a paragraph. Besides year after year, questions of health, will AD finally be better than LeBron? Can Westbrook be a plus in the playoffs? Is LeBron finally slowing down? Will AD play center? All of these are still unanswered. More answerable questions are who will start at SG and Center? I put THT and Howard, but it could be Nunn and Jordan. The Nunn vs. THT questions feels more critical to the Laker upside. If THT is starting past midseason, that means he is as talented as the contract he just signed, and the Lakers are getting closer to this prediction.
The Contenders
4. Phoenix Suns
Starting Five: CP3, Booker, Mikal Bridges, Jae Crowder, DeAndre’ Ayton
Bench Four: Cameron Payne, Cameron Johnson, Dario Saric, JaVale McGee
Predicted Playoff Finish: Western Finals
Predicted Regular Season Finish: 1st in the West
Elevator Pitch: The Suns are the defending Western Conference champion and may have the best starting lineup in all of basketball. If Ayton, Bridges, and Booker can all make another leap, the sky is the limit.
Questions: I am generally worried about fatigue from being on a Finals team during a condensed season/offseason. Will the Suns just run out of gas as many past Finals losers have? Another big thing is beyond the Camerons. The Suns don’t have that much bench depth. While they got JaVale McGee to help plug their hole at the center. It sure would be nice if second-year player Jalen Smith bloomed into a contributor this year.
5. Utah Jazz
Starting Five: Mike Conley, Donovan Mitchell, Royce O’Neil , Bojan Bogdanovic, Rudy Gobert
Bench Four: Joe Ingels, Jordan Clarkston, Rudy Gay, Eric Paschall
Predicted Playoff Finish: Western Semis
Predicted Regular Season Finish: 2nd in the West
Elevator Pitch: The Jazz had the best record last year and matched up with any other team 1–7.
Questions: It’s hard to trust this team in the playoffs. While Donovan Mitchell has had flashes of brilliance do you like him better than any of the number ones in the top seven? Gobert, as your number two is even worst in playoffs, you have to go pretty far down this list before you say yes on the Frenchman. While I like what Jazz did on the edges, the top two have to get better for them to get to the finals.
6. Philadelphia 76ers
Starting Five: Seth Curry, Danny Green, Ben Simmons, Tobias Harris, Embiid
Bench Four: Matisse Thybulle, Furkan Korkmaz, Andre Drummond, Tyrese Maxey
Predicted Playoff Finish: Eastern Semis
Predicted Regular Season Finish: 3rd in the East
Elevator Pitch: The first seed in the East last year still has Embiid, and they are still one of the best defensive teams in the league.
Questions: As the Simmons drama drags on its worst for the team, you really can’t see the 76ers winning the title if Simmons starts the season. Add to that what they get for Simmons could make them worst short term. I am trying to split the difference with this ranking, but the reality is they may be much lower.
7. Miami Heat
Starting Five: Kyle Lowry, Duncan Robinson, Jimmy Butler, PJ Tucker, Bam
Bench Four: Tyler Hero, Victor Oladipo, Marikeff Morris, Dwayne Dedmond
Predicted Playoff Finish: Eastern Semis
Predicted Regular Season Finish: 4th in the East
Elevator Pitch: I mean, when you are grabbing a 35-year All-Star point guard, you are going for the championship. Their top three could conceivably take you to a championship if everything breaks right.
Questions: The Heat feel like a team that needs Bam Adebayo to be their number one to win the championship. Right now, he is not, and it would take a giant leap for him to be so. Add to that, the Heat have thin out and aged their roster a bit. So lasting without injury to the end of the season also seems like a longshot. Keeping past Philly and Atlanta during the regular seaason feels like a must for them to get to the Eastern Conference finals, and even in this best-case scenario is a crushing defeat by the Bucks or Nets feels inevitable. The Heat will be slightly better this year but only slightly.
8. Atlanta Hawks
Starting Five: Trae Young, Bodgan Bodganovic, De’Andre Hunter, John Collins, Clint Capela
Bench Four: Kevin Huerter, Danilo Gallinari, Cam Reddish, Lou Williams
Predicted Playoff Finish: 1st Rd
Predicted Regular Season Finish: 5th in the East
Elevator Pitch: The pitch for the Hawks is simple Trae Young, John Collins, and the rest of the Hawks core will make another leap, and their depth and youth will pull past older teams like the Heat and 76ers.
Questions: It is hard not to see the Hawks eastern conference finals run as lucky. They played a Knicks team who won’t be the four seed this year in East. In the second round they knocked out a 76ers team whose second-best player didn’t want to shoot. The East has gotten even better this year, so unless John Collins or Bodgan Bodganovic make a jump to an actual number two, the Hawks’ progress will be lateral at best this year.
Playin/Playoff Locks
9. Denver Nuggets
Starting Five: Monte Morris, Austin Rivers, Aaron Gordon, Michael Porter Jr., Nikola Jokic
Bench Four: Will Barton, JaMychal Green, Jeff Green, Facundo Campazzo
Predicted Playoff Finish: Western Semis
Predicted Regular Season Finish: 4th in the West
Injured Star: Jamal Murray
Elevator Pitch: Jokic, in my opinion, after the big three (Durant, Giannis, Lebron) is the fourth-best player in the league. All the Nuggets need is for Michael Porter Jr. to become a consistent sidekick. They could surprise some teams in the west.
Questions: I mean, do you believe that Michael Porter Jr. can do that? I have my doubts. The Nuggets are a pretty deep team again, and Mike Malone has tough choices at the edges of his lineup. Will Barton will want to start. (he always does) but without Jamal Murray, it makes more sense to start Austin Rivers and bring Barton as a six-man. The addition of Jeff Green probably means very few minutes for promising young big Bol Bol. If Monte Morris can’t perform to the level we saw late in the season at point, Malone might need to turn to Campazzo or even Rookie “Bones” Hyland to start. Good problems to have, but it may cost the Nuggets some early season victories while they figure them out.
10. Dallas Mavericks
Starting Five: Luka Doncic, Jalen Brunson, Tim Hardaway Jr., Dorian Finny-Smith, Kristaps Prozingas
Bench Four: Maxi Kleber, Boban Marjanovic, Alex Burke, Reggie Bullock
Predicted Playoff Finish: 1st rd
Predicted Regular Season Finish: 5th in the West
Elevator Pitch: Luka will be in the running for MVP this year. If his supporting cast can step up, the Mavericks fans might see a deep playoff run.
Questions: The Maverick’s supporting cast is poor compared to the teams above them, and the front office didn’t do anything to make it better. Luka is a top ten player right now and could be top five by the end of the season, but Tim Hardaway Jr. and Kristaps Prozingas are just not good enough. Their bench is okay but not particularly deep. If teams like Warriors, and Clippers were healthy, they would probably be ahead of the Mavs. However, because of the health of the West, the Mavs have a window too bad their front office did not take advantage of it. Maybe Luka can.
11. Boston Celtics
Starting Five: Marcus Smart, Jaylen Brown, Jason Tatum, Al Horford, Robert Williams
Bench Four: Dennis Schroder, Jason Richardson, Aaron Nesmith, Enes Kanter
Predicted Playoff Finish: 1st round
Predicted Regular Season Finish: 6th in the East
Elevator Pitch: The Celtics are just hoping for more cohesion and for their big two to progress. This core has already made the Eastern Conference Finals twice. There is no reason to think they can’t do it again.
Questions: When you look at the Celtics roster, it just isn’t good enough. They mirror the Mavericks, except instead of one great player, they have two very good players. You could bench Horford if you don’t like the idea of him playing with another big but starting a player like Schroder feels like a variation of the too-small lineup the Celtics had last year. All and all feels too much of the same and an early-round exit for Boston.
12. Golden State Warriors
Starting Five: Steph Curry, Jordan Poole, Andrew Wiggins, Draymond. Green, Kevon Looney
Bench Four: Juan Toscano-Anderson, Andre Iguodala, James Wiseman, Jonathan Kuminga
Injured Star: Klay Thompson
Predicted Playoff Finish: 1st round
Predicted Regular Season Finish: 6th in the West
Elevator Pitch: Steph, Klay, and Dray will come back and lead the Warriors to a deep playoff run just like old times.
Questions: If the Celtics and Mavericks’ supporting cast isn’t good, the Warriors is even worst. Three out of the four of their young players Wiseman, Poole, Moody, and Kuminga need to be solid rotation players now, and that might be too much to ask. Klay Thompson coming back sooner rather than later will help a ton, especially when he is back in form, but it probably won’t be enough to get past the second round this year.
13. New York Knicks
Starting Five: Kemba Walker, Evan Fournier, RJ Barrett, Julius Randle, Mitchell Robinson
Bench Four: Immanuel Quickly, Derrick Rose, Nerlens Noel, Obi Tobbin
Predicted Playoff Finish: 1st round
Predicted Regular Season Finish: 7th in the East
Elevator Pitch: The Knicks finally broke through last year with Tom Thibodeau at the helm. With Julius Randle having a career year the hope after so many years in the wilderness is they will go up from here.
Questions: I think the Knicks supporting cast will be better this year. They added guard depth to the point where Kemba signing is almost all upside. The Knicks’ big question is whether Julius Randle can have another season like his last year’s 2nd team All NBA campaign. If he can, the Knicks could get to the Eastern Conference finals. On the other hand, if he falls back to his previous form, they could fall out of the playoffs. I am betting the in-between.
14. Portland Trail Blazers
Starting Five: Damian Lillard, CJ McCollum, Robert Covington, Larry Nance JR., Jusuf Nurkic
Bench Four: Norman Powell, Nasser Little, Tony Snell, Anfernee Simmons
Predicted Playoff Finish: 1st round
Predicted Regular Season Finish: 7th in the West
Elevator Pitch: The offense for the Blazers is still scorching and will keep them competitive even with the best teams.
Questions: Defense is going to be the issue again, that is what makes the recent Larry Nance Jr. acquisition so good. Will it be enough to make Lillard happy? If Chauncey Billups is brave enough to start Nance to sure up the starting lineup and bring Powell off the bench as a super-sub, maybe.
Well that is it, please let me know in comments what you think. Basketball is almost back and I am super excited.